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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Coincident Index Unchanged


The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) was unchanged at 171.3 in August. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, ticked down to 1.6%.

The chart shows that this reading is lowest since December 2013, a 32-month low, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for over a year and a half.

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

To put the current outlook in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Bloomberg TV

- read Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Seeking Alpha "Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession"

- any policy proposal that doesn't pass our litmus test misses the mark and won’t solve our problems.

Related News & Events

Interview on Fed Models, and an Esoteric Long Leading Index

Bloomberg September 19, 2016

More detail on ECRI’s growth rate cycles, and the global outlook. More

 

Cyclical Update

Bloomberg September 16, 2016

Growth, inflation and policy challenges. More

 

Cyclical Long-Term Slowdown In U.S. Growth But No Recession

Seeking Alpha September 12, 2016

Recall that in early 2016, when many were afraid of recession, ECRI declared that such fears were premature. More

 

Latest Jobs Data in Context

Reuters September 2, 2016

Slowdown continues amid weak global trade. More

 

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