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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Down


The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked down to 171.1 in September from 171.2 in August. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, decreased to 1.3% from 1.6%.

The chart shows that this reading is lowest since December 2013, a 33 month low, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for almost two years.



To put the current economic cycle in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters

- read ECRI's “Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless.

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

Lots of policy prescriptions are flying about, but hardly any of them are worth anything because they miss the point. The litmus test for any policy is, does it improve demographics or productivity growth? Any policy proposal that doesn't pass our litmus test misses the mark and won’t solve our problems.

Related News & Events

“Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless

ECRI October 17, 2016

It’s illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More

 

The Next Recession Is Coming. Big Deal.

Bloomberg October 17, 2016

You have to hand it to economists -- they say the darndest things. More

 

Stagflation Lite & Simple Math

Reuters October 7, 2016

Inflation rising as the economy slows, compounded by intractable structural problems. More

 

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

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USFIG rose in September to a 99-month high. More

 

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