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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Unchanged


The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) edged up to 170.8 in July from 170.3. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, remained same at 1.5%, a 30-month low.

The chart shows that this reading is far below its January 2015 peak of 4.2%, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for the past year and a half.

To put the current economic cycle in perspective please see links below:

- read The New York Times article Growth Weighed Down by Inaction.

- read ECRI's "The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn’t."

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

Related News & Events

Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore

ECRI July 27, 2016

ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015. More

 

ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global

ECRI July 20, 2016

Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky. More

 

Interview: Cyclical Outlook vs. Structural Problems

Bloomberg July 13, 2016

Just because a U.S. recession isn’t right at hand, doesn’t mean it’s off the table. More

 

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