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U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Up

The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked up to 170.7 in May from 170.6. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, edged up to 2.2%.

The chart shows that this reading is far below its January 2015 peak of 4.1%, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for the past year and a half.

To put the current economic cycle in perspective please see links below:

- read The New York Times article Growth Weighed Down by Inaction.

- read ECRI's "The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn’t."

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

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