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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Coincident Index Ticks Up


The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked up to 170.7 in May from 170.6. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, edged up to 2.2%.

The chart shows that this reading is far below its January 2015 peak of 4.1%, illustrating the pronounced, pervasive and persistent cyclical downturn in growth that has been going on for the past year and a half.

To put the current economic cycle in perspective please see links below:

- read The New York Times article Growth Weighed Down by Inaction.

- read ECRI's "The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn’t."

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

Related News & Events

The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn’t

ECRI June 17, 2016

Before Yellen’s recent press conference, our research showed that the Fed’s next move may well be a rate cut. More

 

Economic Cycle and The Fed

Reuters June 14, 2016

Unless a growth rate cycle upturn begins to take shape, its next move may very well end up being a rate cut. More

 

“It’s the economy, stupid!”

ECRI June 9, 2016

The Fed doesn't seem to realize that its rate hike plans are colliding with the economic cycle. More

 

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