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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Decreased


The U.S. Coincident Index is a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales. While the USCI edged up to 170.3 in April from 169.9, its year-over-year growth has fallen to 1.9%, a 28-month low.



Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

For more recent ECRI perspectives, please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview with Tom Keene at Bloomberg TV

- read The New York Times article Growth Weighed Down by Inaction

Related News & Events

Growth Weighed Down by Inaction

New York Times May 18, 2016

“The litmus test for any policy is, what impact does it have to improve productivity or demographic growth?” More

 

Bloomberg Interview Summary

Bloomberg May 9, 2016

Stagflation "lite," as slower growth persists. More

 

Where Are We in The Economic Cycle?

PCBE May 4, 2016

NABE Conference Slides with Notes More

 

Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments

ECRI April 15, 2016

Minsky conference slides and audio. More

 

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