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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Ticks Down


The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) slipped to 170.5 in February. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has ticked down to 2.3% from 2.4%.

Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to watch Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview with Reuters on the Fed and the business cycle.

Related News & Events

Interview on Fed and the Business Cycle

Reuters March 16, 2016

More often than not, turns in economic surprise indexes are false alarms, and false all-clear signals. More

 

Monetary Policy Parlor Tricks

ECRI March 15, 2016

Inexorable declines in NGDP growth have become more evident internationally. More

 

The Myth of the Resilient Consumer

ECRI February 12, 2016

The premise of a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false. More