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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

New Growth Rate Cycle Peak Date Determined for Japan


Today ECRI is announcing a new Japanese growth rate cycle peak date, October 2015.

Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.

Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries and is considered the arbiter for international business cycle dates.

Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.

Related News & Events

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Ticks Down

ECRI March 24, 2016

Year-over-year growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, ticked down to to 2.3%. More

 

Interview on Fed and the Business Cycle

Reuters March 16, 2016

More often than not, turns in economic surprise indexes are false alarms, and false all-clear signals. More