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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Slips


ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slips to 143.9 from 144.1. The WLI growth rate falls to a 73-week low of 1.9%, from 2.3% last week.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- see @businesscycle's latest tweet on today's jobs report

- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's recent op-ed on Bloomberg

- read ECRI's "Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction"

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

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Jan ’17 Flashback: Bond Bears Will Be Blindsided

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Last January, ECRI warned that cyclical forces would blindside those betting on the end of the 35-year bond bull market. More

 

Finding the Root Cause of Recessions

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Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction

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ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More

 

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