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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

Weekly Leading Index Edges Down


Body: ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 144.1 from 144.5. The WLI growth rate decreases to a 72-week low of 2.3%, from 2.5% the previous week.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction".

- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Related News & Events

Interview: Jobs, the Fed & Cyclical Developments

Reuters September 1, 2017

Economic growth, which has been ramping up since mid-2016, is now about as good as it gets. More

 

Finding the Root Cause of Recessions

Bloomberg August 25, 2017

Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More

 

Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction

ECRI August 24, 2017

ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More

 

Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed

Reuters August 4, 2017

Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More

 

Phillips Curveball

ECRI July 31, 2017

It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge – not the Phillips curve – that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More

 

All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation

Bloomberg July 18, 2017

Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More