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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Interview on Jobs Report, Wage Growth & Trade Sanctions


Watch Lakshman Achuthan discuss today's jobs report, including a chart of average hourly earnings growth, showing that since March 2018, growth in total pay is flat but growth in total hours – which reflects economic growth – is down.


 
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Will the Flattening Yield Curve Lead to Recession?

Barron's August 31, 2018

In contrast to the latest robust GDP readings, ECRI’s broader U.S. Coincident Index is below last October’s peak. More

 

Managing the Risk of Equity Corrections

CNBC August 31, 2018

ECRI's Achuthan on CNBC to discuss how equity correction risk rises during cyclical slowdowns in economic growth. More