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Smooth Reflation Sailing (For Now...)


ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison on January 21, 2021 to share the outlook on economic growth, inflation, and markets. Achuthan charts his way through the next 12 months, pointing out how the bulk of ECRI indicators suggest that reflation is indeed, just as many foresee, here.

Watch the long-form interview here

Achuthan disaggregates “the reflation trade” into the U.S. business cycle upturn, the spike in future inflation gauges, and a pick-up in global industrial growth, predicting that these three forces will for the near-term persist, albeit with the potential for some “storm clouds on the horizon.” Harrison asks Achuthan about the dangers and timescales of these storm clouds, and then the two interpret economic data ranging from jobless claims to shipping numbers to industrial production.

Download the transcript here.

Lastly, Achuthan shares his view on interest rates and volatility in the equity and credit markets. Key learnings: Reflation is here and will continue. In most of the economic data he tracks, Achuthan sees an expected pick-up in growth and inflation. Nonetheless, looking at longer-leading indicators, there are “storm clouds on the horizon” for these variables.

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VIEW THIS ARTICLE ON REAL VISION TV

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