Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

Nowcasts and Consensus Forecasts


GDP nowcasts – some of which suggest a third straight quarter of 3%-plus growth – are once again in the news. Consensus forecasts are almost as upbeat. The question is, how reliable are these estimates?



Several months ago we released a report to our professional members detailing the ins and outs of nowcasts and consensus forecasts. Three insights stood out:

• The accuracy of consensus forecasts depends on the stage of the economic cycle, so we know when they should be ignored.

• There are periods when the current-quarter nowcast is consistently less accurate than even the consensus forecast for a year later.

• There are specific times when the consensus estimate of current-quarter GDP growth is more accurate than popular nowcasts.

Click here to download a copy of this ECRI Insight report.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Related News & Events

Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn

ECRI November 15, 2017

ECRI was warning of the inflation downturn when the Fed was celebrating its midyear “Mission Accomplished” moment. More

 

Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off

ECRI November 8, 2017

Is what ails the U.S. someone else’s fault? History says no. More

 

Wage Inflation Puzzle on Full Display

Reuters November 3, 2017

We’re approaching generational lows in unemployment, yet wage inflation is falling. More

 

Average Hourly Earnings Falls, But It’s Not What It Seems

ECRI November 3, 2017

Why has wage growth fallen? More

 

Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit

Bloomberg October 6, 2017

Economic growth is about as good as it gets, and we’re on the cusp of a fresh downturn. More

 

Related Reports