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Longer Leads are Critical

Our Weekly Leading Index (WLI) is a pretty good index, but on its own it’s insufficient for managing risk the way that we know it can be managed based on the entire array of leading indexes we monitor.

For example, in this day and age of information technology, consider the decision about when to build huge multibillion dollar chip fabs. They don’t want to go on stream at the start of a down cycle, or get caught flatfooted at the start of an up cycle. Instead, by acting proactively they can take advantage of cycle turns. But if they’re acting on information available to everyone, they’re less likely to outperform.

This is why having more time through longer leads, and more conviction from more indexes, are both critical features of our client work.

This skill-set is equally valuable for our investor clients. They can’t reallocate on a dime, and need high conviction and longer leads allow them to shift course in a timely way, which is the essence of cycle risk management.

In sum, early high-conviction calls lie at the core of how we advise decisions makers for whom cycle risk management is critical.

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