September 22nd, 2019 Interview.

ECRI research shows that, based on our forward-looking cycle indicators, Japan has entered “window of vulnerability” within which negative shocks tend to be recessionary.

At the same time, while many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s even worse for Japan because a big part of its exports which go to China are getting slammed. 

Furthermore, Japan’s spat with Korea, another major trading partner, is also hurting exports.

Finally, it’s in this context that Japan is raising its sales tax at the end of the month. The cyclical timing couldn’t be much worse.

Watch the full interview.

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