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What Record Growth Numbers Miss About The Economic Recovery

As the economy recovers from the Covid crisis and we approach the November elections, Americans are confused about where the economy is heading. Stock prices are up sharply from their March lows, yet many small businesses and those who lost their jobs are in dire straits. Understanding where we stand in the economic cycle offers valuable context for what otherwise seems irreconcilable, particularly with respect to two key economic metrics: GDP and employment.

We'll likely see record employment and GDP growth right before Election Day, but the harsh reality is that the economy is still far behind where it was before Covid hit, and it will be years before either gets back to pre-Covid levels.

It's important to know that both GDP and jobs behave like bouncing balls during recession and recovery. In other words, the greater the drop, the bigger the rebound.

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