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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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The Canary in the Semiconductor-chip Fab


As ECRI shared with CNBC, the canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has already keeled over and – according to our leading index – there’s no resurrection in sight.

Mobile users can view the interview here.

The chart shows that global semiconductor shipment growth has collapsed, plunging over 20% since August, and its growth rate has tanked to a ten-year low. 

Contact us and we will email you a PDF slide of the chart, with key points.

Because the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, growth in ECRI’s Global Leading Manufacturing Index (GLMI, top line) reliably anticipates turning points in semiconductor shipment growth, and clearly predicted this downturn.

Bottom line, with GLMI growth still plummeting, there is no light at the end of the tunnel, and semiconductor demand will fall further.

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