Contact Us



Home Price Growth Downturn

ECRI monitors many cycles within the economy, and a recent development is that home price inflation is flashing red. Growth in our U.S. Leading Home Price Index, which nailed the 2006 housing bust in real-time, is now at its worst reading since 2009, when we were about to pull out of the 2007-09 recession (contact us for copies of the ’06 or ‘09 reports).

In other words, home price growth is set to fall in a sustained cyclical downturn. This is important because of the wealth effect and consumer confidence. People feel better when the stock market and their home values rise. And it’s been years since there’s been serious downside risk to both, which amounts to a more generalized risk to asset prices.

In addition to tax cuts, a lot of borrowing has been supporting growth. The combined debt of U.S., the Eurozone, Japan and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP over the past year.

It’s remarkable that the global economy – slowing in sync despite soaring debt – finds itself in a situation reminiscent of the Red Queen Effect. As the Red Queen says to Alice in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass, “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.
For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.


Related News & Events

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?

New York Post October 25, 2018

If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More


Economic Cycles & Stock Price Corrections

ECRI October 24, 2018

With at least one equity price correction during every economic slowdown, knowing where you are in the economic cycle is critical to managing portfolio risk. More


Damned Lies and Statistics

Mauldin Economics October 23, 2018

With GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4% people feel pretty good, but the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. More


U.S. Not Immune to Global Slowdown

Bloomberg October 23, 2018

The U.S. economy is not as resilient as the headlines suggest, as a number of cycle downturns become clear, including home price growth and broad inflation. More


ECRI’s Inflation Downturn Call

Grant's October 16, 2018

Achuthan joined Grant’s podcast to discuss ECRI’s cyclical worldview on inflation, home prices, EM and more. More


Worst Home Price Outlook Since 2009

ECRI October 15, 2018

A home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. More


Related Reports