ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance’s Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene to share an update to our outlook.

Key points:

- Back in the early summer ECRI made a completely out-of-consensus Eurozone growth rate cycle upturn call that people are only now catching up to. It has already begun to play out across the continent, including stronger than consensus GDP data for France, Italy and the Eurozone.

- The EZ upturn call dovetails with another ECRI out-of-consensus call.

Our research showed that the global industrial slowdown started before trade war began in early 2018. That also means that global industrial growth can bottom before the trade war ends, and now we’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. 

- While ECRI totally nailed the U.S. slowdown that started last year, we didn’t buy into the U.S. recession scares of last December and then again in August.

Today, people agree with ECRI that recession not imminent. But that doesn’t mean U.S. recession risk has disappeared, with manufacturing still slowing.

Review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.

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