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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Are We Really "Normalizing?"


Click here to download the full presentation, including notes.

With ECRI’s focus on economic cycles, we have a solid read on where we are in the business cycle. And, when we strip out the cyclical, what’s left is largely structural, allowing us to distinguish between economic developments that are cyclical and structural.

This week ECRI presented “The Risk of Mistaking Cyclical for Structural" at the Levy Economics Institute’s Minsky Conference.



Click here to download ECRI’s Track Record.

Related News & Events

Interview: Deglobalization and the Fed

Bloomberg April 26, 2018

ECRI’s Achuthan on a structural retreat of globalization, trade and the Fed. More

 

The Dog that Didn’t Bark

CNBC April 9, 2018

Unemployment is flat, yet it should be falling if the economy is as strong as most assume. More

 

Global Economy's Wile E. Coyote Moment

Bloomberg March 9, 2018

Groupthink on synchronized global growth upturn in danger of being blindsided by cyclical downturn getting underway. More

 

Jobless Rate Consistent with Slowdown

ECRI March 9, 2018

The unemployment rate has been drifting up, conforming to the economic slowdown that ECRI flagged earlier. More