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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated


To download the full presentation with detailed notes click here.

At the recent 2019 Strategic Investment Conference ECRI explained why the business cycle’s demise has been greatly exaggerated.

Our presentation focused on the proposition that the Fed has eliminated business cycles through quantitative easing and unconventional monetary policy.

Conclusions:

• The business cycle is alive and well, despite central bank interventions.

• Those interventions are reactive –driven by cycles in growth and inflation – and have diminishing returns.

• The current global industrial slowdown is not over, and the inflation cycle is still in a downswing.

To download the full presentation with detailed notes click here.


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