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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Key Measure of Cyclical Growth is Weakening


Fed rate hike plans remain on a collision course with U.S. economic growth, which has been in a sustained slowdown all year.

That’s according to ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index (USCI), a composite measure of aggregate output, employment, income and sales, which together define the business cycle.



In September, USCI growth declined for the eighth straight month to a 19-month low, continuing a cyclical downswing that won’t end anytime soon.

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