Contact Us



Interview on Cyclical Growth & Inflation Outlook

The Message from ECRI’s Leading Indexes of Economic Growth and Inflation:

ECRI leading indexes of global growth and inflation had separately turned up prior to the U.S. election. While the “Trump effect” is real, a major part of the story has to do with these cyclical fundamentals.

In fact, 10-year yields have risen in line with our cyclical leading indexes, with about half the rise in U.S. rates occurring pre-election. Globally, most of the rise in yields occurred before the election.

Understanding that economic and inflation cycle dynamics are playing a big role in the markets today means that – while the upturn has everyone’s attention –we now need to be on the lookout for reversals in the current growth and inflation cycle upturns.


Related News & Events

Cyclical Outlook Diverges from Headlines

Bloomberg January 22, 2018

Our research shows most are looking the wrong way on economic growth. More


Jobs Report and 2018 Slowdown

Reuters January 5, 2018

Reuters interview discussing the Dec. jobs report, as well as ECRI's view on cycles in economic growth, including a U.S. slowdown in 2018. More


Don't Count on Ever-Growing Corporate Profit

Bloomberg October 6, 2017

Economic growth is about as good as it gets, and we're on the cusp of a fresh downturn. More


Cyclical Forces Pressuring the Fed

CNBC September 20, 2017

ECRI's Achuthan speaks with CNBC about how monetary policy is impacted by cycles in inflation and growth. More


Fed Rate Hike

Reuters December 14, 2016

Cyclical context of Fed's statement More


Related Reports