A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Interview on Cyclical Growth & Inflation Outlook

The Message from ECRI’s Leading Indexes of Economic Growth and Inflation:

ECRI leading indexes of global growth and inflation had separately turned up prior to the U.S. election. While the “Trump effect” is real, a major part of the story has to do with these cyclical fundamentals.

In fact, 10-year yields have risen in line with our cyclical leading indexes, with about half the rise in U.S. rates occurring pre-election. Globally, most of the rise in yields occurred before the election.

Understanding that economic and inflation cycle dynamics are playing a big role in the markets today means that – while the upturn has everyone’s attention –we now need to be on the lookout for reversals in the current growth and inflation cycle upturns.


Related News & Events

Fed Rate Hike

Reuters December 14, 2016

Cyclical context of Fed's statement More


All of a Sudden, Inflation Fears Intensify

ECRI November 17, 2016

The upturn in inflation, which ECRI predicted many months ago, has now become a significant concern. More


ECRI in Hong Kong

ECRI January 5, 2017

Lakshman Achuthan will visit Hong Kong to meet with professional members and give a private talk, January 4 - 6, 2017.


Related Reports