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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Failure to Launch – Confirmed


The year began with an overwhelming consensus: that the economy was "taking off" and would soon reach "escape velocity." We disagreed.

So, we said in January on CNBC, "What's bothersome is that right now the consensus is that we are 'taking off,' we are approaching 'escape velocity' ... We just don't see that when we're looking at the data... in the forward-looking indicators, in the coincident data on jobs, it's not there."

In contrast, a celebrated economist at Davos noted that everyone there was euphoric, "they think everything is going to be fantastic."

ECRI is closely watching its array of leading indexes for signs of an upturn in growth.

Related News & Events

Is the U.S. Heading Toward a Deeper Downturn?

Wall Street Journal May 1, 2014

The economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. More

 

Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More

 

Earnings Growth Upturn Masks Labor Market Weakness

ECRI May 1, 2014

Earnings growth has risen for an unwelcome reason – because growth in hours has fallen faster than pay growth. More

 

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