The year began with an overwhelming consensus: that the economy was "taking off" and would soon reach "escape velocity." We disagreed.

So, we said in January on CNBC, "What's bothersome is that right now the consensus is that we are 'taking off,' we are approaching 'escape velocity' ... We just don't see that when we're looking at the data... in the forward-looking indicators, in the coincident data on jobs, it's not there."

In contrast, a celebrated economist at Davos noted that everyone there was euphoric, "they think everything is going to be fantastic."

ECRI is closely watching its array of leading indexes for signs of an upturn in growth.