A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
In cyclical terms nothing much has changed lately, the cyclical downturn in job growth is part of cyclical downturn in overall growth that began a year and a half ago.
The employment/population ration is also discussed as those with at least a high school diploma have not seen any recovery, while those without a high school diploma have seen 57% of their recessionary losses reversed.
See link below to watch the interview on Reuters TV.
Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the "productivity puzzle." More
The Fed, counting on investment growth to bolster the economy, has been disappointed, undercutting any "rate hike cycle" plans. More
Before Yellen's recent press conference, our research showed that the Fed's next move may well be a rate cut. More
June 20, 2016
Full Report: U.S. Essentials
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