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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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New Business Cycle Dates for France and Spain


ECRI has determined new business cycle peak (4/2011) and trough (11/2012) dates for France, as well as a business cycle trough (7/2013) date for Spain.

Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER’s behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee’s senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.

Related News & Events

Is the U.S. Heading Toward a Deeper Downturn?

Wall Street Journal May 1, 2014

The economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. More

 

Earnings Growth Upturn Masks Labor Market Weakness

ECRI May 1, 2014

Earnings growth has risen for an unwelcome reason – because growth in hours has fallen faster than pay growth. More