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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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New Business Cycle Date for Japan


Today ECRI is announcing a new Japanese business cycle peak date of March 2014. There were also over a half-dozen growth rate cycle dates announced, including growth rate cycle dates for China.

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for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER’s behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee’s senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries.

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