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2015: Slowing Ahead

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan speaks with David Shuster about the latest improvements in U.S. GDP and jobs data.

Looking at year-over-year growth rates, which can give a clearer picture, in Q3 the U.S. accelerated to 2.7% growth, which is indeed better, but likely near the higher end of what is possible in coming years. In fact, already a few times since the Great Recession we’ve had year-over-year GDP growth stronger than in Q3 2014, only to slide back again.

The discussion covers foward-looking leading indexes that show slowing in overall growth ahead (at the 2 minute mark), concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Comments also review how multiple jobholders, who make up only about 5% of total employment, accounted for nearly half the jobs added between January and October this year. So while employment growth has clearly improved of late, many of these jobs are low-wage jobs. So much so that, to make ends meet, workers have to take on additional jobs.

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