Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

2015: Slowing Ahead


ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan speaks with David Shuster about the latest improvements in U.S. GDP and jobs data.

Looking at year-over-year growth rates, which can give a clearer picture, in Q3 the U.S. accelerated to 2.7% growth, which is indeed better, but likely near the higher end of what is possible in coming years. In fact, already a few times since the Great Recession we’ve had year-over-year GDP growth stronger than in Q3 2014, only to slide back again.

The discussion covers foward-looking leading indexes that show slowing in overall growth ahead (at the 2 minute mark), concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Comments also review how multiple jobholders, who make up only about 5% of total employment, accounted for nearly half the jobs added between January and October this year. So while employment growth has clearly improved of late, many of these jobs are low-wage jobs. So much so that, to make ends meet, workers have to take on additional jobs.

Related News & Events

The Fed in the Yo-Yo Years

Al Jazeera January 7, 2015

Given half a chance, the Fed wants to raise rates off of the zero lower bound ASAP. More

 

Detailed Interview on our Approach

Real Vision TV December 5, 2014

Discussing ECRI's research approach, with comments on the outlook, in a 69 minute interview with Real Vision TV. More