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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus


Key takeaways from interview:

- U.S inflation cycle downturn is not transitory, and is separate from, but consistent with, the slowdown in U.S. economic growth.

- Trade war developments – while generally negative – obscure the underlying cyclical downturn in global industrial growth that started first.

- Chinese growth has stabilized some, after a lot of stimulus, but there is an ongoing industrial slowdown that will continue.

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