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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More


Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcomed ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss the following:

Interview starts at 17:00 minute mark.

    • Are we actually in late cycle dynamics?
    • Concept of late cycle: what is the cycle and how does the cycle work
    • Business cycle vs. Inflation cycle
    • Using cyclical indicators to monitor where we are in the cycle
    • Growth rate cycle downturns and recoveries
    • Correlation between growth rate downturn and risks of recession
    • 3 P’s: Pronounced, Pervasive and Persistent decline in the growth rate
    • What the leading indicators show when the cycle is ending
    • Length of expansion vs. the severity of recession
    • Characteristics of business cycle, credit cycle and inflation cycle
    • Changes in productivity growth is needed to attain higher trend growth
    • Recession serves a purpose in a free market economy

1. Minsky Chartbook: [Click Here]

2. Mauldin Chartbook: [Click Here]

3. Supplemental Chartbook: [Click Here]

4. Perspective Chartbook: [Click Here]

VIEW THIS ARTICLE ON MACRO VOICES

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U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus

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Interview: Disinflation is the Elephant in the Room

Yahoo May 31, 2019

ECRI’s Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the drop in yields and more. More

 

Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated

Mauldin Economics SIC May 20, 2019

Business cycles remain part and parcel of every market-oriented economy. More