Contact Us



Remembering Geoffrey H. Moore

Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, Moore decided all those dates on the NBER's behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee's senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 21 other countries that are widely accepted by academics and major central banks as the definitive international business cycle chronologies. These chronologies have always been publicly available.

In the 1960s, Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called “the father of leading indicators,” gave his original Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to the U.S. government. The state-of-art successor to the LEI is ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI).

Moore was Director of Research of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which he joined in 1939, and of which he remained Director Emeritus. From 1969 to 1973, he was the U.S. Commissioner of Labor Statistics.

In 1979, after his retirement from the NBER, he set up the Center for International Business Cycle Research at Columbia University.

Moore, who represented the second generation of business cycle researchers, was mentored by Wesley C. Mitchell, who helped establish the NBER, and Arthur F. Burns, both of whom represented the first generation of business cycle researchers. In 1996 he founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) in New York, where he continued to direct research into business cycles. Also in 1996, the American Economic Association named him Distinguished Fellow, its highest honor.

Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.


Related News & Events

The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More