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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Eurozone price pressure ticks up but remains muted


Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have ticked up but remain muted, suggesting prices will rise only moderately in the coming months, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EFZIG) rose to 98.8 in October from 98.4 the month before. The gauge is a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

"While the EZFIG inched up in October, as did euro zone CPI inflation, it stayed well below May's four-year high. Thus, euro zone inflation pressures remain fairly restrained," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operations officer.

The European Central Bank cut a key interest rate on Thursday and announced an extension of its monthly asset purchases as it has so far failed to get inflation anywhere near its 2 percent target ceiling.

Euro zone core inflation unexpectedly slowed in November, while headline inflation across the 19-member euro area held steady at an annualised 0.1 percent.

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