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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Curb your pessimism


"Recessions spawn gloom. Deep recessions create so much gloom that good news – like Friday’s much-better-than-expected jobs report – comes as a jolt.

It shouldn’t, says Lakshman Achuthan, of Economic Cycle Research Institute, who makes his living predicting the ups and downs of the economy. It does only because of the “giant error of pessimism.”