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2020 Track Record: Covid-19, Shortest Recession, Global Recovery

While the outlook for growth and inflation at the start of 2020 was positive, cascading closures due to Covid-19 tipped the economy into recession. That recession would be amongst the shortest on record. Internationally, the recoveries from the Covid recessions were not all created equal, with renewed signs of slowing ahead in some economies.

See below for selections from our 2020 track record through September.

September 2020
Eurozone Growth Outlook Dims a Bit Well before the Second Wave of infections: “Eurozone growth prospects have started to fade a little, following a rapid recovery from the Covid crisis. That is the implication of the September read of ECRI’s Eurozone Quick Leading Index (EZQLI).” – International Essentials, September 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 9

September 2020
Inflation Pressures Turn Up
“Though the recovery from recession is far from complete, U.S. inflation pressures are now in an unambiguous cyclical upswing. That is the clear message from ECRI’s forward-looking indexes of inflation.” – U.S. Essentials, September 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 9

August 2020
China Leaving the Worst Behind
“The Chinese economy is starting to fire on more cylinders, gaining cyclical traction following the earlier recovery in our leading indexes. Now, those forward-looking indexes are pointing to strengthening domestic and external demand.” – International Focus, August 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 8

June 2020
Housing Market Outlook in Covid Times
“Following the hit from the coronavirus shutdowns, cyclical forces are driving a revival in housing market prospects.” – U.S. Essentials, June 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 6

May 2020
Industrial Growth Revival on Horizon
“A nascent revival in global industrial growth is now on the horizon. Those early tidings come from ECRI’s high frequency leading indexes, which are moving off their extreme lows.” – International Essentials, May 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 5

May 2020
Leading Indexes Begin to Improve
“Even as the Covid crisis continues to crush the economy, early signs of recovery have started to emerge. Indeed, sighting some light at the end of the tunnel, some of our leading indexes have begun to show sequential improvement.” – U.S. Essentials, May 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 5

April 2020
Springtime for Stocks
“[I]f the economy starts opening up, even partially, by mid-year … this would be among the shortest recessions on record. … [and] stock prices … would likely turn up by early spring, possibly by this March or April.” – U.S. Essentials, April 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 4

April 2020
China’s Economy Still in Danger
“As a global recession takes hold, massive demand destruction abroad has boomeranged on Chinese industry, and will take a serious toll despite more stimulus.” – International Focus, April 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 4

March 2020
Recession Looms Large
“Widespread mandatory shutdowns have thrown open a cyclical window of vulnerability. This is evident from the plunges in ECRI’s high-frequency indexes, with rampant demand destruction sending the economy into recession.” – U.S. Essentials, March 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 3

February 2020
Coronavirus Collides With Cyclical Strength
“The coronavirus outbreak is especially worrisome because the worst-case scenarios are not merely tail risks. Rather, they are capable of generating major shocks to which the global economy could succumb if its current cyclical strength ebbs.” – International Essentials, February 2020, Vol. XXV, No. 2

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