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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Business Cycle Recovery Remains Elusive


A measure of U.S. future economic growth slipped further along with its annualized growth rate in the latest week, indicating a hazy reading of economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 106.1 for the week ending Feb. 6, from a revised 106.6 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to minus 24.8 percent from a revised minus 24.5 percent, hitting its four-week low since Jan. 9 when it read negative 25.2 percent.

"With WLI growth falling once again, a business cycle recovery remains elusive," said Lakshman Achuthan, the Managing Director at ECRI.

The index fell to a nine-week low, the lowest reading since Dec. 5, 2008, when it was 105.7.
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