News

Weekly Leading Index Moves Up

Click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.

On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site.
__________________________________________

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) moved up to 155.4, a record high. The growth rate rose to 26.2%, 594-week high.

ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.

The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

Please see below for public statements ECRI has made about our cyclical outlook:

Less than a month after the March 23 low in stocks, we wrote: “If the economy starts opening up by summertime, this deep recession would also be among the shortest on record. In that case, stock prices would likely bottom around now.” pic.twitter.com/Ra0Oruftvh
— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 23, 2021

“You have an upturn call just as we had in the summer of ’16, which is the left-hand side of the chart,” said Achuthan. “You can see those have some staying power, and regardless of the headline narratives, they persist.” More here: https://t.co/RloBtZ2qiy pic.twitter.com/RSKPAfz2KO
— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 16, 2021

“The underlying [inflation] trend regardless of the narratives is going to remain to the upside.” Watch and read more here. https://t.co/RloBtZ2qiy pic.twitter.com/rKsBwuxUed
— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 14, 2021

For a quick glance at the WLI’s recent performance, please see the chart below.