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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls


ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 143.5 as WLI growth decreased to -4.4%, a 199-week low.

On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.

On mobile click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click the "Full Site" link to download the data.     




The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.

For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to information that we have made public:

- read ECRI's latest op-ed "A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market"

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on "Global Slowdown, Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink" on CNBC

- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck"

For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:    



Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

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"Eyes Wide Open," but the Fed is Just Staring at the Stars

CNBC December 21, 2018

ECRI joins CNBC to discuss the ongoing cyclical downturns in economic growth and inflation, and future Fed rate hikes. More

 

Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide

ECRI November 30, 2018

As usual, the recent collapse in oil prices followed a cyclical downturn in industrial commodity price inflation. More

 

Cycle Turns & Equity Corrections

ECRI December 17, 2018

Our earlier warning of elevated stock price correction risks will stay in place until ECRI’s leading indexes see the slowdown ending. More

 

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