As 2019 got underway, we expected the global growth slowdown – which predated the trade war – to continue. We also predicted continued downswings in U.S. economic growth and inflation, flying in the face of expectations of a second-half recovery based on the Powell Pivot and massive Chinese stimulus. But by summer, we were looking for Eurozone growth to start reviving, followed by our forecast that global industrial growth would bottom. Some highlights below:

Click here to review our 2019 real-time client cycle calls.

The Fall of 2019 saw ECRI sharing its precient global industrial growth and Asia-ex-Japan upturn calls. Meanwhile, key coincident U.S. data continued to vindicate our earlier U.S. slowdown call.

A good looking jobs report, as yoy growth in education & health jobs rose to a 38-month high. The more cyclical component of nonfarm jobs growth – excluding those jobs – remains in a clear downswing, virtually unchanged from October’s 99-month low. pic.twitter.com/ivPIpu0raX

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) December 6, 2019

Hopes of reacceleration predicated on market optimism, but little objective evidence in hard data to support that view. More here: https://t.co/bbiz8I463s pic.twitter.com/lyDHVlbcil

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) November 20, 2019

Interview on ECRI’s early summer call that Eurozone growth would turn up, and how that relates to the prospect of a global industrial growth upturn. https://t.co/Xoawu27jaz pic.twitter.com/A0EHQpqHaj

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) November 11, 2019

The global industrial slowdown really started before the trade war: Economic Cycle Research Institute research shows that global growth peaked in end-2017, write Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, co-founders of ECRI, for @CNNBusiness Perspectives https://t.co/9Oddhl54e0

— CNN International (@cnni) October 24, 2019

Updates to our U.S. and China slowdown calls, monetary policy developments and recession risk. Watch full interview here: https://t.co/0GHtEviCP5 pic.twitter.com/fV8VdWRDfi

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) September 1, 2019

While the markets were spooked by the summer 2019 U.S. recession scare, ECRI demurred, and further broke from the consensus with our sighting of "green shoots" in the Eurozone.

Discussing the Fed, Dudley and recession risk https://t.co/agl1voCMCL

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) August 29, 2019

PMIs have not bottomed yet. ECRI leading index of PMIs predicts cyclical turns in the ISM and Markit U.S. manufacturing PMIs. Read more: https://t.co/4MRejdReC6 pic.twitter.com/QD8F2IXzHp

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) August 1, 2019

Headlines catching up to ECRI's long held finding that global slowdown preceded the trade war. 2/19 report here: https://t.co/TWdzHziZry. 6/10/19 clip below: https://t.co/uRU5YGTqR2 pic.twitter.com/zh8rBa7ql3

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) July 18, 2019

Data never lies. Watch @RaoulGMI get answers ECRI COO Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) on the recession question. Recession Watch continues on Real Vision: https://t.co/RIj1nk8Naa pic.twitter.com/p2WWx3cbJV

— Real Vision (@realvision) July 17, 2019

Our latest op-ed: The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market - Bloomberg https://t.co/TzeeJM6Yfz

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) July 5, 2019

With the trade war merely piling on to existing cyclical and structural forces driving deglobalization – which has dominated this entire decade – even a China trade deal cannot repeal the drivers of structural and cyclical deglobalization. Read more: https://t.co/qXJQRp0lx4 pic.twitter.com/YyTPIMKm5O

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) July 1, 2019

The spring of 2019 saw a continued U.S. slowdown and inflation downswing, despite markets rallying in the wake of the earlier Powell Pivot and Chinese stimulus. This calidated ECRI's earlier forecast of further slowdown, with no second-half recovery.

Disinflation: The Elephant in the Room. The drop in bond yields is primarily about the inflation cycle, not the latest tweet or the recent breakdown in China trade talks. For more details: https://t.co/tQCMFuWFsS pic.twitter.com/2rK9Ye3gH6

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) May 30, 2019

The death of the business cycle has been greatly exaggerated. Our #SIC2019 presentation recalls Lewis Carrol's Red Queen and Robert A. Heinlein's #TANSTAAFL. Download here: https://t.co/UlFZiIMzdx pic.twitter.com/tXxFY0dB81

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) May 21, 2019

Telegraphing the Powell pivot a year ago (2018 Minsky conference) ECRI leading indexes showed Fed on "collision course with the economic cycle.” To request full 2019 Minsky conference deck w/ notes, click here: https://t.co/ByGGomLpzy pic.twitter.com/msZvIa4BHs

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) April 22, 2019

The canary in the semiconductor-chip fab has keeled over. Related #ECRI leading index and interview here: https://t.co/Rktmtz3vXC pic.twitter.com/OxqIvyjXgc

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 18, 2019

Latest ECRI op-ed: Recession or not, it's out of Trump's hands https://t.co/RIXedheIjm

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) March 9, 2019

2019 kicked off with economic and inflation data completly in line with eCRI's earlier forecast of a global industrial slowdown and declining commodity price growth, as well as continued slowdowns in the U.S., China and Eurozone.

Fed pivot and ECRI leading indexes. Watch here: https://t.co/ns9G0LZx2S pic.twitter.com/TnzyVA1SCt

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) February 21, 2019

ECRI’s latest op-ed:https://t.co/7J2Chc9Rp9 via @bopinion

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) February 19, 2019

EM risk on/risk off? "The elephant in the room remains the economic cycle." Interview here: https://t.co/NllbatJcxa pic.twitter.com/iKVqc1qeot

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) February 8, 2019

Because ECRI leading indexes turn before the PMIs that shape the consensus, they are key to managing cycle risk. https://t.co/nMuH7nQIbX pic.twitter.com/3f712qa5TU

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) February 6, 2019

Today German Ifo sinking further as the extent of the cyclical downturn in Europe's pillar economy becomes harder to ignore. ECRI report excerpts: https://t.co/5gNv5OHp7Y pic.twitter.com/16DUk0M0HO

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) January 25, 2019

Eurozone industrial production falls sharply – this is the global industrial slowdown ECRI's been warning about. Stay tuned. https://t.co/RoFaVhOV1k

— Lakshman Achuthan (@businesscycle) January 14, 2019

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