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2019 Public Calls in Review


As 2019 got underway, we expected the global growth slowdown – which predated the trade war – to continue. We also predicted continued downswings in U.S. economic growth and inflation, flying in the face of expectations of a second-half recovery based on the Powell Pivot and massive Chinese stimulus. But by summer, we were looking for Eurozone growth to start reviving, followed by our forecast that global industrial growth would bottom. Some highlights below:

Click here to review our 2019 real-time client cycle calls.

The Fall of 2019 saw ECRI sharing its precient global industrial growth and Asia-ex-Japan upturn calls. Meanwhile, key coincident U.S. data continued to vindicate our earlier U.S. slowdown call.




While the markets were spooked by the summer 2019 U.S. recession scare, ECRI demurred, and further broke from the consensus with our sighting of "green shoots" in the Eurozone.

 

 



The spring of 2019 saw a continued U.S. slowdown and inflation downswing, despite markets rallying in the wake of the earlier Powell Pivot and Chinese stimulus. This calidated ECRI's earlier forecast of further slowdown, with no second-half recovery.

 



2019 kicked off with economic and inflation data completly in line with eCRI's earlier forecast of a global industrial slowdown and declining commodity price growth, as well as continued slowdowns in the U.S., China and Eurozone.

 

 



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Related News & Events

What Makes ECRI Different and Our Updated Public Outlook

Real Vision TV December 13, 2019

RealVision interview on the ECRI process and updates to our public outlook. More

 

Forecast to Fact: Green Shoots in the Eurozone

ECRI November 14, 2019

Unbeknownst to virtually all, a growth rate cycle upturn was set to take hold in early summer 2019. More

 

Forward-Looking Data Up, ECRI Says

Bloomberg November 11, 2019

Prospects of a global industrial growth upturn. More