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2019 Private Cycle Calls in Review

What our clients saw in real time in 2019 – some highlights:


October 2019
Industrial Outlook Improves in China
Despite the trade war, Chinese industrial growth prospects have begun to improve. This is a key development for the nascent upturn in our forward looking indicators of global industrial growth to gain traction. – International Essentials, October 2019, Vol. XXX, No. 10
Read October 2019 ECRI Outlook Excerpt text

September 2019
Global Industrial Slowdown Set to Bottom
Even without a trade deal, nascent upturns in ECRI’s forward looking indicators of global industrial growth are taking shape. Hence, the global industrial slowdown that began in late 2017 – predating the trade war – could well come to a close before the trade war does. – International Essentials, September 2019, Vol. XXIX, No. 9
Read September 2019 ECRI Outlook Excerpt text

June 2019
Green Shoots in the Eurozone
Unbeknownst to virtually all, a growth rate cycle upturn is set to take hold in the Eurozone. … Despite continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which will remain under pressure in the near term, a broadbased – albeit mild – Eurozone growth rate cycle (GRC) upturn is taking shape. – International Focus, June 2019, Vol. XXVI, No. 6
Read June 2019 ECRI Outlook text

May 2019
Inflation to Stay in Cyclical Downswing
The sharp drop in consumer inflation expectations surprised policymakers, but was foreshadowed by the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG). Moreover, the cyclical downswing in inflation is set to persist, despite the tariffs and the fresh half-century low in the jobless rate. – U.S. Essentials, May 2019, Vol. XXV, No. 5
Read May 2019 ECRI Outlook Excerpt text

April 2019
U.S. Manufacturing Slowdown to Worsen
“ECRI’s suite of leading manufacturing indexes all remain around multiyear lows, suggesting that the ongoing downturns in the growth of manufacturing activity and employment are set to worsen…. This also means that PMI data will remain in a cyclical downturn for now [as confirmed by] the U.S. Leading Index of Manufacturing PMIs, which leads cyclical turns in the ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs, typically by about one quarter over the ISM and a little more over the Markit PMI.” – U.S. Focus, April 2019, Vol. XXIV, No. 4
Read April 2019 ECRI Outlook full text

March 2019
Chinese Growth Prospects Worsen
“Despite efforts to stimulate growth, an economic recovery in China is not at hand. In fact, a deepening downturn in the growth rate of ECRI’s Chinese Long Leading Index (CNLLI), which is superior to conventional leading indexes, points to further slowing ahead.” – International Essentials, March 2019, Vol. XXIV, No. 3

March 2019 G7
Inflation Downturn Confounds Central Banks
“Central bankers do not understand that inflation has its own cycle, distinct from the business cycle, leading to repeated policy delays and mistakes. … ECRI predicted in October that the Fed’s planned 2019 rate hikes were ‘not going to happen’ on the basis of the USFIG downturn, even as markets saw a 90% chance of at least one rate hike in 2019.” – International Focus, March 2019, Vol. XXIV, No. 3
Read March 2019 ECRI Outlook excerpt text

February 2019
Advanced-Economy Slowdowns to Deepen
“Growth prospects for the major advanced economies – already the worst in over seven years – continue to deteriorate, despite hopes that Chinese stimulus will save the day. Cutting through complacency about a trade deal and dovish central bank pivots, Group of Seven Long Leading Index growth, which turned down well ahead of trade war talk, foresees a sustained synchronized slowdown.” – International Essentials, February 2019, Vol. XXIV, No. 2
Read February 2019 ECRI Outlook excerpt text

January 2019
Global Industrial Slowdown to Intensify
“Global industrial growth, having fallen sharply in 2018, is set to weaken further. That is the latest forecast from ECRI’s leading indexes, which is at odds with the growing sense that the worst may be behind us.” – International Essentials, January 2019, Vol. XXIV, No. 1
Read January 2019 ECRI Outlook excerpt text


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