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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Decreases


ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 144.7, while WLI growth remained unchanged at -3.9%. 
       


The WLI is just one of many ECRI leading indexes, including some with longer leads over economic cycle turns.

For more on ECRI’s cyclical outlook, please see links below to ECRI information that has been made public:

- read ECRI's latest op-ed "A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market"

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan in a recent interview on "Global Slowdown,Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink" on CNBC

- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck"

For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below:    



Click here to review ECRI’s recent track record.

For more information on ECRI professional services please contact us.

Related News & Events

A Growing Economy Can Be Mauled By a Bear Market

Market Watch December 20, 2018

5 bear markets since World War II have occurred when economic growth was positive, but decelerating. More

 

Credit Markets Signal Recession in Early 2019

The Telegraph December 18, 2018

“Fed policy is too tight given that inflation peaked in July. They overstayed their welcome.” More

 

Cycle Turns & Equity Corrections

ECRI December 17, 2018

Our earlier warning of elevated stock price correction risks will stay in place until ECRI’s leading indexes see the slowdown ending. More

 

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