News & Events
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Jul 06 2019
US-China Feud Is Accelerating The Biggest Shift In Trade Since The Cold War, Away From Globalisation
Trend described as ‘deglobalisation’ and ‘balkanisation’ is leading to shorter supply chains as companies try to keep up with more sophisticated consumer demand. More
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Jul 05 2019
Great Headlines Mislead On Jobs
The headlines paint an overly rosy picture of the state of the labor market, after having exaggerated last year’s job growth. More
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Jul 05 2019
The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market
Jobs growth is substantially slower than the headline employment data indicate. More
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Jul 05 2019
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth increases to -1.9%. More
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Jul 01 2019
Notes from Spain
Fast fashion is the new model for all sorts of trade under deglobalisation. More
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Jun 28 2019
De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War
De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. More
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Jun 28 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edges down to -2.4%. More
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Jun 15 2019
Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?
ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September. More
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Jun 14 2019
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to -1.9%. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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Jun 07 2019
Inflation, the Fed and the FIG
The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. More
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Jun 07 2019
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreases as its growth falls to -1.3%. More
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May 31 2019
Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More
ECRI’s Achuthan joined MacroVoices to discuss how “late cycle” analysis falls short and where we are in the current business and inflation cycles (two different things). More
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May 31 2019
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips as its growth edges down to -0.3%. More
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May 31 2019
Interview: Disinflation is the Elephant in the Room
ECRI’s Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the drop in yields and more. More
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May 24 2019
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index falls as its growth ticks down to 0.0%. More
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May 20 2019
Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
Business cycles remain part and parcel of every market-oriented economy. More
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May 17 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down as its growth decreases to 0.2%. More
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Apr 26 2019
Industrial Commodities and the Canadian Loonie
ECRI’s Achuthan discusses global growth prospects, commodity price inflation and the Canadian loonie. More
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Apr 26 2019
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 1.4%. More
Testimonial
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
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