News & Events
-
Oct 23 2018
Damned Lies and Statistics
With GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4% people feel pretty good, but the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. More
-
Oct 23 2018
U.S. Not Immune to Global Slowdown
The U.S. economy is not as resilient as the headlines suggest, as a number of cycle downturns become clear, including home price growth and broad inflation. More
-
Oct 22 2018
Radio Interview: ECRI’s Home Price Downturn Call
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Opinion Radio to discuss "Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags." More
-
Oct 19 2018
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to 0.1%. More
-
Oct 16 2018
ECRI’s Inflation Downturn Call
Achuthan joined Grant’s podcast to discuss ECRI’s cyclical worldview on inflation, home prices, EM and more. More
-
Oct 15 2018
Worst Home Price Outlook Since 2009
A home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. More
-
Oct 15 2018
Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags
Real home price growth looks to have already entered a cyclical downturn that is likely to intensify as affordability worsens. More
-
Oct 12 2018
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 0.6%. More
-
Oct 03 2018
Home Price Growth Downturn
Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss ECRI’s home price downturn call, the wealth effect, and borrowing vs. growth. More
-
Sep 07 2018
Interview on Jobs Report, Wage Growth & Trade Sanctions
Achuthan discussed jobs report and how wage growth rising is consistent with a stealth slowdown in economic growth. Trade sanctions are also discussed. More
-
Sep 04 2018
ECRI on EM vs. U.S. Growth
Bloomberg TV discussion about how emerging market weakness fits into ECRI’s public global cyclical outlook, including the U.S., and monetary policy. More
-
Aug 31 2018
Will the Flattening Yield Curve Lead to Recession?
In contrast to the latest robust GDP readings, ECRI’s broader U.S. Coincident Index is below last October’s peak. More
-
Aug 31 2018
Managing the Risk of Equity Corrections
ECRI's Achuthan on CNBC to discuss how equity correction risk rises during cyclical slowdowns in economic growth. More
-
Aug 03 2018
Outsized Gains for Least Educated Limits Wage Growth
The Employment/Population ratio for those without a high school diploma has never been higher. More
-
Jul 27 2018
Trump Cheers ’Amazing’ Economic Growth as Economists Caution It Could Be a Blip
"The bottom line takeaway is that this growth is not sustainable and it will slow in the second half of the year," said Lakshman Achuthan. More
-
Jul 17 2018
Stealth Slowdown Unfolding
The U.S. consumer is under pressure, and it’s getting worse. More
-
Jul 06 2018
Jobs Report, GDP, and the Fed
ECRI's Achuthan joined Reuters TV to discuss the jobs report, including the employment/population ratio, as well as industrial commodities, GDP and the Fed. More
-
Jul 06 2018
Trade War and Recession Risk
ECRI’s Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss global trade and recession risk, the Fed and industrial commodities. More
-
Jul 03 2018
Oil Diverges from Other Industrial Commodities
Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss ECRI’s insights into recent moves in commodity prices and the global slowdown. More
-
Jun 26 2018
Unusual Divergence in Commodities Spotlights Global Slowdown
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses industrial commodity prices in the context of a global slowdown on CNBC. More
Testimonial
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
"eerily accurate"
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
