News & Events
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Nov 11 2019
Eurozone Growth Upturn
Interview on ECRI’s early summer call that Eurozone growth would turn up, and how that relates to the prospect of a global industrial growth upturn. More
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Oct 24 2019
Don't Blame Global Slowdown on Trade War
Many are misunderstanding the primary cause of the current global slowdown, which means that they'll also miss what's coming next. More
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Oct 09 2019
Consumer Spending Growth Slowing
The downturn in consumer spending growth fits with the jobs growth slowdown. More
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Oct 02 2019
ISM Mfg, Jobs & Consumer
ISM Mfg at worst reading since June 2009 underscores that the slowdown ECRI predicted long ago is worse than analysts expected. More
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Sep 27 2019
Eurozone Looking Better
People are convinced that the Eurozone is going into recession, but our work reveals that’s too pessimistic because it’s too simplistic. More
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Sep 25 2019
Japan Recession Risk
While many countries around the world are fighting global trade headwinds, it’s much worse for Japan. More
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Sep 24 2019
Cyclical Upturn in India
From a cyclical perspective India is looking better, with ECRI’s leading indexes showing a trough in the current slowdown. More
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Sep 24 2019
The U.S. Jobs Slowdown is Important
U.S. jobs growth, already at an 8-year low, will keep falling, undermining consumer spending. More
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Sep 23 2019
Industrial Slowdown Grips China and the U.S.
Despite the ups and downs of trade talks, the global industrial growth continues with knock-on effects for China and the U.S. More
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Sep 23 2019
The US Economy Isn't In The Clear. A Recession is Still on The Table
The stock market is once again nearing record highs amid investor hopes that a recession is off the table — at least for now. More
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Sep 13 2019
An Upturn In India’s Growth Cycle Is In The Offing
The ECRI’s forward-looking leading indicators on India’s economic cycle tell us that there is a bottoming-out of growth that is in the offing. More
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Sep 12 2019
The Trouble with Oil Price Predictions
The ECRI’s forward-looking leading indicators on India’s economic cycle tell us that there is a bottoming-out of growth that is in the offing. More
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Sep 06 2019
Hiring Cooled in August, The Latest in a Long Line of Data Indicating Trump’s Trade War is Starting to Bite
The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. More
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Sep 05 2019
Jobs Growth Prospects Dim
Leading Employment Index growth, which nailed the current jobs slowdown, has fallen sharply. More
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Sep 01 2019
Central Bank Failures and Recession Risks
Updates to ECRI’s U.S. and China slowdown calls, and monetary policy dilemmas in the context of Grand Experiments launched post-GFC. More
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Aug 30 2019
Worsening U.S. Slowdown
Discussion about the ongoing turns in U.S. economic growth and inflation. More
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Aug 30 2019
Surveillance Podcast: Global Slowdown and Trade War
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast to discuss global slowdown and U.S.-China trade war. More
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Aug 30 2019
China’s “Rust Belt” Problem
The Chinese cyclical slowdown continues, as they shore up their “rust belt.” More
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Aug 29 2019
Inflation Cycle, The Fed and Recession Risks
ECRI's Achuthan joined CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the inflation cycle, Fed and recession risks. More
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Aug 20 2019
How an Economic Downturn Could Ravage Hollywood
“The yield curve is a very imperfect leading indicator of a recession, globally,” says Achuthan, calling it just a “piece of the puzzle.” More
Testimonial
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
"penetrating analysis"
