News & Events
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Dec 07 2018
Global Slowdown,Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink
ECRI's Achuthan discusses the ongoing economic slowdown and inflation cycle downturn that the consensus is now catching up to. More
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Dec 07 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to -4.1%. More
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Dec 07 2018
Falling Growth in Hours Worked
The slowdown ECRI flagged in the spring is coming into focus. More
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Nov 30 2018
Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide
As usual, the recent collapse in oil prices followed a cyclical downturn in industrial commodity price inflation. More
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Nov 30 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to -4.0%. More
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Nov 21 2018
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to -3.7%. More
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Nov 12 2018
Construction Crumbling
A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth. More
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Nov 08 2018
Interview Updating Market Correction Call
The cyclical risk of stock market corrections remains elevated as U.S. economic growth continues to slow. More
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Nov 07 2018
Markets Must Decide Which History to Believe
Industrial commodities send up a red flag. More
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Nov 02 2018
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to -1.4%. More
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Nov 01 2018
Eurozone: Growth Downturn, Inflation Upturn No Surprise
By mid-summer ECRI was forecasting a slowdown in Eurozone growth, just the opposite of ECB expectations. That forecast is now a fact. More
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Oct 27 2018
Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed
“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.” More
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Oct 26 2018
Debt Alarm Ringing
The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year. More
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Oct 26 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -0.4%. More
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Oct 25 2018
Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?
If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More
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Oct 24 2018
Economic Cycles & Stock Price Corrections
With at least one equity price correction during every economic slowdown, knowing where you are in the economic cycle is critical to managing portfolio risk. More
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Oct 23 2018
Damned Lies and Statistics
With GDP growth over 4% and the jobless rate under 4% people feel pretty good, but the last two times we saw this combination, in 2000 and way back in 1969, a recession was less than a year away. More
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Oct 23 2018
U.S. Not Immune to Global Slowdown
The U.S. economy is not as resilient as the headlines suggest, as a number of cycle downturns become clear, including home price growth and broad inflation. More
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Oct 22 2018
Radio Interview: ECRI’s Home Price Downturn Call
ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Opinion Radio to discuss "Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags." More
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Oct 19 2018
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to 0.1%. More
Testimonial
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
"penetrating analysis"
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
