News & Events
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Mar 17 2020
Fed's Latest Rate Cut Was a Useless and Desperate Move
Cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand. More
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Mar 12 2020
School Closures Are Starting, And They’ll Have Far-Reaching Economic Impacts
School closures might hurt the economy, but keeping them open could make things worse. More
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Mar 06 2020
The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Was A Big Mistake
Our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than most realize. More
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Mar 05 2020
Impact of Mass School Closings
Discussion on how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass. More
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Feb 21 2020
A Predictable Pratfall
Yet again, ECRI’s Japanese Leading Index correctly flags a recession, in this case well ahead of the tax hike and coronavirus concerns. More
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Jan 28 2020
Coronavirus Impact on Commodity Price Outlook
Industrial commodity price inflation, which had been pretty beaten down, started a cyclical upturn some months ago. More
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Jan 22 2020
Hard Data Defies Confident Consensus
Weakening sales trends and wage growth underscore a sustained slowdown in spending. More
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Jan 16 2020
Global Industrial Growth Supports Commodities
Industrial commodity price inflation, which is still pretty beaten down, is starting a cyclical upturn on the back of better global industrial growth. More
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Jan 16 2020
Upside for Industrial Commodity Inflation
Cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. More
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Jan 13 2020
Interview on Jobs and Markets
Growth in total hours worked has slowed to its weakest reading since 2010. More
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Dec 31 2019
Understanding Cycles
RealVision discussion on ECRI’s process and updates to the public outlook. More
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Dec 24 2019
2019 Private Cycle Calls in Review
See how the year unfolded for our clients, who were prepared for a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and the Fed’s collision with the economic cycle. More
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Dec 20 2019
2019 Public Calls in Review
2019 saw a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and a complete capitulation by the Fed. More
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Dec 13 2019
What Makes ECRI Different and Our Updated Public Outlook
RealVision interview on the ECRI process and updates to our public outlook. More
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Nov 19 2019
Hard Data Decelerating
Hopes of reacceleration predicated on market optimism, but little objective evidence in hard data to support that view. More
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Nov 14 2019
Forecast to Fact: Green Shoots in the Eurozone
Unbeknownst to virtually all, a growth rate cycle upturn was set to take hold in early summer 2019. More
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Nov 11 2019
Forward-Looking Data Up, ECRI Says
Prospects of a global industrial growth upturn. More
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Nov 11 2019
Eurozone Growth Upturn
Interview on ECRI’s early summer call that Eurozone growth would turn up, and how that relates to the prospect of a global industrial growth upturn. More
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Oct 24 2019
Don't Blame Global Slowdown on Trade War
Many are misunderstanding the primary cause of the current global slowdown, which means that they'll also miss what's coming next. More
Testimonial
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
Inflation Ahoy! We're indebted to the ECRI, that unnapping watchdog of inflation, for the FIG data.
