News & Events
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Apr 22 2020
Interview: Three D's and High-Frequency Data
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. More
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Apr 14 2020
Radio Interview on Recession (in German)
A discussion on recession, recovery and long-term impacts of the pandemic. More
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Mar 17 2020
Fed's Latest Rate Cut Was a Useless and Desperate Move
Cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand. More
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Mar 12 2020
School Closures Are Starting, And They’ll Have Far-Reaching Economic Impacts
School closures might hurt the economy, but keeping them open could make things worse. More
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Mar 06 2020
The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Was A Big Mistake
Our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than most realize. More
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Mar 05 2020
Impact of Mass School Closings
Discussion on how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass. More
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Feb 21 2020
A Predictable Pratfall
Yet again, ECRI’s Japanese Leading Index correctly flags a recession, in this case well ahead of the tax hike and coronavirus concerns. More
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Jan 28 2020
Coronavirus Impact on Commodity Price Outlook
Industrial commodity price inflation, which had been pretty beaten down, started a cyclical upturn some months ago. More
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Jan 22 2020
Hard Data Defies Confident Consensus
Weakening sales trends and wage growth underscore a sustained slowdown in spending. More
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Jan 16 2020
Global Industrial Growth Supports Commodities
Industrial commodity price inflation, which is still pretty beaten down, is starting a cyclical upturn on the back of better global industrial growth. More
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Jan 16 2020
Upside for Industrial Commodity Inflation
Cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. More
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Jan 13 2020
Interview on Jobs and Markets
Growth in total hours worked has slowed to its weakest reading since 2010. More
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Dec 31 2019
Understanding Cycles
RealVision discussion on ECRI’s process and updates to the public outlook. More
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Dec 24 2019
2019 Private Cycle Calls in Review
See how the year unfolded for our clients, who were prepared for a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and the Fed’s collision with the economic cycle. More
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Dec 20 2019
2019 Public Calls in Review
2019 saw a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and a complete capitulation by the Fed. More
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Dec 13 2019
What Makes ECRI Different and Our Updated Public Outlook
RealVision interview on the ECRI process and updates to our public outlook. More
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Nov 19 2019
Hard Data Decelerating
Hopes of reacceleration predicated on market optimism, but little objective evidence in hard data to support that view. More
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Nov 14 2019
Forecast to Fact: Green Shoots in the Eurozone
Unbeknownst to virtually all, a growth rate cycle upturn was set to take hold in early summer 2019. More
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Nov 11 2019
Forward-Looking Data Up, ECRI Says
Prospects of a global industrial growth upturn. More
Testimonial
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
"eerily accurate"
I find that ECRI's historical knowledge of economic cycles and data is almost as important to me as your indicators of future cycles.
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
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