News & Events
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Jun 24 2020
Biggest Risk for Markets
Interview on recession severity and the biggest risk for markets. More
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Jun 24 2020
Interview: Short Recession Call Revisited
A review of ECRI’s April 2020 public short recession call, and updated questions and answers. More
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Jun 24 2020
Yes, We're in a Recession. But the Market's Rally Still Makes Perfect Sense
With the economy officially in the deepest recession in living memory, the stock market's ongoing rally can seem baffling. More
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Jun 13 2020
Why a Ruinous Recession and Soaring Stocks Make Perfect Sense
A rising equity market historically leads an upturn in the business cycle. More
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Jun 09 2020
Recession Started in Feb., But What's Next
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the dating of recession, and the outlook for a near-term recovery. More
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Jun 09 2020
Recession and (Yes) Recovery
Interview on markets and two recovery scenarios. More
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Jun 05 2020
Employment Dives Followed by Solid Uptick
The question is when that virtuous cycle will begin to gain traction. This is where good leading indexes – not politics, epidemiology, or therapeutics – are critical to watch. More
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Jun 04 2020
A Recovery Call that is Still Contrarian
History repeats itself. As ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index points to recovery, the Conference Board’s LEI and the OECD’s CLI keep falling. More
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Jun 04 2020
Two Key Recovery Scenarios and Markets
Interview on recession end, markets and the 2001-03 vs. 2009-10 recovery scenarios. More
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Jun 03 2020
Market’s Make Or Break Moment In One Chart
Drawing parallels to the opposing 2001 and 2009 recoveries. More
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May 29 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises further to -25.1%. More
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May 27 2020
The Stock Market and Consumer Sentiment Are Telling Different Stories
Stocks have rebounded off March lows, while sentiment is near the lowest level in nearly a decade. More
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May 14 2020
Recession, Recovery, Demand Destruction and Cyclical Risks
Interview on recession, recovery, demand destruction, cyclical risks and what happens next. More
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May 14 2020
Cyclical Risks and Contrarian Calls (Radio Interview)
Discussing the outlook, cyclical risks and contrarian calls. More
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May 11 2020
The Business Cycle Basics of this Recession
Understanding the depth, diffusion and duration of this downturn. More
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May 08 2020
Podcast: The Recession in Context, and the Coming Recovery
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares what cycle research insights tell us about the covid-19 recession, and what’s likely to come next. More
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May 08 2020
Fastest Job Loss Ever
Eventually, the hemorrhaging of jobs will be stanched, and employment will start rising. But even that would be far from enough for things to start feeling better. More
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Apr 23 2020
The Three D’s and High-Frequency Leading Indicators
We measure recessions with the Three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. Here’s what we are watching for signs of recovery. More
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Apr 22 2020
Interview: Three D's and High-Frequency Data
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. More
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Apr 14 2020
Radio Interview on Recession (in German)
A discussion on recession, recovery and long-term impacts of the pandemic. More
Testimonial
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
"eerily accurate"
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
