News & Events
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Dec 17 2018
Cycle Turns & Equity Corrections
Our earlier warning of elevated stock price correction risks will stay in place until ECRI’s leading indexes see the slowdown ending. More
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Dec 14 2018
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to -3.9%. More
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Dec 13 2018
What the Fed is Getting Wrong
The Fed and many market participants don’t really understand that inflation is cyclical. More
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Dec 13 2018
Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck
Oblivious of the ongoing inflation cycle downturn, the Fed is still navigating “by the stars.” More
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Dec 12 2018
Inflation is Cyclical
ECRI joins CNBC to discuss how most don’t understand that inflation is cyclical, and how that impacts the debate around Fed rate hike expectations. More
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Dec 07 2018
Global Slowdown,Trade War and the Fed’s Belated Blink
ECRI's Achuthan discusses the ongoing economic slowdown and inflation cycle downturn that the consensus is now catching up to. More
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Dec 07 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to -4.1%. More
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Dec 07 2018
Falling Growth in Hours Worked
The slowdown ECRI flagged in the spring is coming into focus. More
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Nov 30 2018
Oil Price Plunge Foretold by Commodity Price Slide
As usual, the recent collapse in oil prices followed a cyclical downturn in industrial commodity price inflation. More
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Nov 30 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate slips to -4.0%. More
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Nov 21 2018
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to -3.7%. More
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Nov 12 2018
Construction Crumbling
A decisive deterioration in the construction sector outlook has occurred in the context of the worrisome downturn in home price growth. More
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Nov 08 2018
Interview Updating Market Correction Call
The cyclical risk of stock market corrections remains elevated as U.S. economic growth continues to slow. More
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Nov 07 2018
Markets Must Decide Which History to Believe
Industrial commodities send up a red flag. More
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Nov 02 2018
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to -1.4%. More
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Nov 01 2018
Eurozone: Growth Downturn, Inflation Upturn No Surprise
By mid-summer ECRI was forecasting a slowdown in Eurozone growth, just the opposite of ECB expectations. That forecast is now a fact. More
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Oct 27 2018
Why Trump May Be Right About the Fed
“The biggest risk is the Fed,” President Trump charged again last week. Meanwhile, ECRI analysis points “It’s a full-blown downturn, pointing to a further decline in inflation pressures.” More
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Oct 26 2018
Debt Alarm Ringing
The combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP growth over the past year. More
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Oct 26 2018
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -0.4%. More
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Oct 25 2018
Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?
If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More
Testimonial
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
As an investment strategist, I need to navigate the many twists and turns in the emerging economic landscape with as much foresight as possible to know when to take or avoid risk. In this quest, ECRI's array of leading indices, specifically designed to predict and navigate economic turning points, have been an indispensible tool.
...a unique set of insights that made me able to cut through a lot of the noise in the market place... the tools ECRI provide in calling decelerating (or accelerating) growth is unmatched.
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
