News & Events
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Jun 28 2019
De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War
De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. More
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Jun 28 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edges down to -2.4%. More
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Jun 15 2019
Should the Fed Cut Rates in June?
ECRI’s research suggests the Fed should have begun a rate cut cycle last September. More
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Jun 14 2019
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth decreases to -1.9%. More
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Jun 10 2019
U.S. Inflation Cycle and More China Stimulus
ECRI’s Achuthan spoke with Bloomberg Daybreak Asia about ECRI’s inflation cycle research, how global slowing preceded the trade war, and why more Chinese stimulus is likely. More
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Jun 07 2019
Inflation, the Fed and the FIG
The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. More
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Jun 07 2019
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreases as its growth falls to -1.3%. More
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May 31 2019
Podcast: the “Late Cycle” Myth & More
ECRI’s Achuthan joined MacroVoices to discuss how “late cycle” analysis falls short and where we are in the current business and inflation cycles (two different things). More
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May 31 2019
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index slips as its growth edges down to -0.3%. More
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May 31 2019
Interview: Disinflation is the Elephant in the Room
ECRI’s Achuthan joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the drop in yields and more. More
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May 24 2019
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index falls as its growth ticks down to 0.0%. More
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May 20 2019
Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
Business cycles remain part and parcel of every market-oriented economy. More
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May 17 2019
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down as its growth decreases to 0.2%. More
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Apr 26 2019
Industrial Commodities and the Canadian Loonie
ECRI’s Achuthan discusses global growth prospects, commodity price inflation and the Canadian loonie. More
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Apr 26 2019
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks up to 1.4%. More
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Apr 25 2019
Market Optimism and the Hard Data
ECRI's Achuthan joins CNBC to discuss the U.S. slowdown and how the hard economic data shows slowing growth. More
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Apr 18 2019
Levy Economics Institute
Probing Powell’s Patience
ECRI presentation slides discuss the Fed’s review of its monetary policy approach in the context of Powell’s view of the Greenspan Fed. More
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Apr 18 2019
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 1.2%. More
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Apr 12 2019
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to 0.2%. More
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Mar 30 2019
Full RV Interview: ECRI Slowdown Call, Process & Current Outlook
30-minute interview on ECRI’s 2018 slowdown call, our process, and updates to our outlook. More
Testimonial
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI [is] the most accurate forecasting institution in the world.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
(ECRI's) forecast of the [Great] recession helped us anticipate reduced merchandise sales; we proactively revised our inventory forecasts down months ago, and that has helped to greatly minimize the inventory swell and need for markdowns.
