News & Events
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Apr 22 2020
Interview: Three D's and High-Frequency Data
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses the three D’s: depth, diffusion and duration. More
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Apr 14 2020
Radio Interview on Recession (in German)
A discussion on recession, recovery and long-term impacts of the pandemic. More
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Apr 09 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate drops to a record low of -37.2%. More
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Apr 04 2020
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession
While we all appreciate the urgency of reopening the economy, saving lives is a precondition for saving livelihoods. More
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Apr 03 2020
Weekly Leading Index Drops
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -26.9%. More
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Mar 27 2020
Weekly Leading Index Worst Since Great Recession
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate plummets to -15.5%. More
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Mar 20 2020
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to -4.4%. More
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Mar 17 2020
Fed's Latest Rate Cut Was a Useless and Desperate Move
Cascading closures across the economy will necessarily cause a breakdown in demand. More
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Mar 13 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to -0.5%. More
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Mar 12 2020
School Closures Are Starting, And They’ll Have Far-Reaching Economic Impacts
School closures might hurt the economy, but keeping them open could make things worse. More
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Mar 06 2020
The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Was A Big Mistake
Our research shows that the US economy came into this epidemic in more resilient cyclical shape than most realize. More
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Mar 06 2020
Weekly Leading Index Falls
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to 1.2%. More
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Mar 05 2020
Impact of Mass School Closings
Discussion on how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass. More
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Mar 03 2020
We're on the Road to Japanification
Oblivious of the economy’s current cyclical resilience, the Fed cut rates today, depleting the precious ammo it will need when recession truly threatens. More
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Feb 28 2020
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up, but growth rate falls further to 2.6%. More
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Feb 21 2020
A Predictable Pratfall
Yet again, ECRI’s Japanese Leading Index correctly flags a recession, in this case well ahead of the tax hike and coronavirus concerns. More
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Feb 21 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to 3.8%. More
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Feb 14 2020
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to 4.8%. More
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Feb 07 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate is little change at 5.9%. More
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Jan 28 2020
Coronavirus Impact on Commodity Price Outlook
Industrial commodity price inflation, which had been pretty beaten down, started a cyclical upturn some months ago. More
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For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.