News & Events
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Mar 05 2020
Impact of Mass School Closings
Discussion on how mass school closings would effect the economy if they come to pass. More
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Mar 03 2020
We're on the Road to Japanification
Oblivious of the economy’s current cyclical resilience, the Fed cut rates today, depleting the precious ammo it will need when recession truly threatens. More
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Feb 28 2020
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index edges up, but growth rate falls further to 2.6%. More
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Feb 21 2020
A Predictable Pratfall
Yet again, ECRI’s Japanese Leading Index correctly flags a recession, in this case well ahead of the tax hike and coronavirus concerns. More
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Feb 21 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate falls to 3.8%. More
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Feb 14 2020
Weekly Leading Index Slips
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate decreases to 4.8%. More
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Feb 07 2020
Weekly Leading Index Decreases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate is little change at 5.9%. More
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Jan 28 2020
Coronavirus Impact on Commodity Price Outlook
Industrial commodity price inflation, which had been pretty beaten down, started a cyclical upturn some months ago. More
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Jan 24 2020
Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to 5.2%. More
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Jan 22 2020
Hard Data Defies Confident Consensus
Weakening sales trends and wage growth underscore a sustained slowdown in spending. More
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Jan 17 2020
Weekly Leading Index Rises
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 4.4%. More
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Jan 16 2020
Global Industrial Growth Supports Commodities
Industrial commodity price inflation, which is still pretty beaten down, is starting a cyclical upturn on the back of better global industrial growth. More
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Jan 16 2020
Upside for Industrial Commodity Inflation
Cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. More
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Jan 13 2020
Interview on Jobs and Markets
Growth in total hours worked has slowed to its weakest reading since 2010. More
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Jan 10 2020
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate rises to 3.3%. More
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Jan 03 2020
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate edges down to 2.3%. More
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Dec 31 2019
Understanding Cycles
RealVision discussion on ECRI’s process and updates to the public outlook. More
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Dec 24 2019
2019 Private Cycle Calls in Review
See how the year unfolded for our clients, who were prepared for a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and the Fed’s collision with the economic cycle. More
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Dec 20 2019
2019 Public Calls in Review
2019 saw a continued global growth slowdown, no upturn in U.S. growth and inflation, and a complete capitulation by the Fed. More
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Dec 20 2019
Weekly Leading Index Increases
ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate is virtually unchanged at 2.2%. More
Testimonial
"eerily accurate"
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
"penetrating analysis"
Congrats on having the only coherent analysis available.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
No one speaks with more authority about the economy's turning points.
