News & Events
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May 14 2015
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May 13 2015
Draghi is Winning Main QE Battle
It's not just the markets that see more inflation coming. A European Commission survey concurred, while ECRI's gauge of the euro zone inflation outlook rose in March to its highest in 3 /12 years. More
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May 11 2015
ECRI's 2012 U.S. Recession Call Redux
After decades of successful recession and recovery forecasts -- without false alarm -- why was ECRI's September 2011 U.S. recession forecast not followed by a recession? More
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May 11 2015
Oil Price Volatility, Recessions, U.S. Outlook
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call, the implications of oil price volatility, the two-speed economy in the U.S., and more. More
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May 08 2015
Oil Price Volatility and Recessions
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss ECRI's recession call and the implications of oil price volatility. More
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May 08 2015
The Greater Moderation
What counts in this fraught environment is not foreboding, but forewarning. More
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May 08 2015
Euro Zone Inflationary Pressures Rising
With the EZFIG climbing to a three-and-a-half year high in March, euro zone inflation is poised to rise further in the coming months. More
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Apr 29 2015
Whiff of Panic, but Sky Not Falling
Wall Street Journal Live talks with ECRI about U.S. economic growth outlook. More
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Apr 29 2015
A Two-Speed Economy
With economic surprise indexes falling to their most negative readings in years, the "R" word has begun to pop up again. More
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Apr 23 2015
Minsky Conference Slides with Notes
A record plunge in oil price volatility played a key role in moderating economic cycle volatility in the 2011-13 period. More
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Apr 17 2015
Minsky Conference Audio with Slides
The very idea that this has been a sub-par recovery is a long-standing misunderstanding. More
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Mar 06 2015
Wage Growth Falling Faster
Year-over-year nominal average earnings growth was already lackluster, despite the January boost from higher minimum wages. But, wage growth is now falling faster. More
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Feb 27 2015
U.S. WLI Edges Up
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 130.6 from 130.4. The growth rate ticked down to -4.5% from -4.2%. More
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Feb 24 2015
Cattle Hides Instead of Entrails as Omens of Economy
The JoC-ECRI index shows that the slump in industrial commodity prices is a lot broader than just oil, suggesting weakness of demand. More
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Feb 23 2015
The Song Remains the Same
$11,000,000,000,000 is a big number. More
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Feb 18 2015
New Growth Rate Cycle Date for Sweden
Today ECRI is announcing a new Swedish growth rate cycle trough date. More
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Feb 06 2015
Swing Shift
Yoy nominal average earnings growth is still lackluster, despite the January boost from the rise in minimum wages in a number of states. More
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Jan 13 2015
A Bit of a Surprise?
One of 2014's biggest surprises – falling oil prices – is completely consistent with our timely call on global growth. When made last July, that forecast was opposed to the consensus view. More
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Jan 09 2015
2-year Lows for Average Hourly Earnings Growth
Average hourly earnings growth rates (year-over-year) drop to two-year lows, the worst readings since the fall of 2012. More
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Jan 07 2015
The Fed in the Yo-Yo Years
Given half a chance, the Fed wants to raise rates off of the zero lower bound ASAP. More
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