News & Events
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Apr 15 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases
U.S. WLI increases to 134.2, growth rate rises to 2.5%. More
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Apr 15 2016
Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments
Minsky conference slides and audio. More
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Apr 13 2016
Fed Faces Stagflation Lite
With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with "stagflation lite." More
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Apr 08 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up
U.S. WLI ticked up to 133.2, growth rate rose to 1.6%. More
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Apr 07 2016
New Growth Rate Cycle Peak Date Determined for Japan
New Japanese growth rate cycle date. More
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Apr 04 2016
U.S. WLI Monthly Increased
U.S. WLI (monthly data) increased to 130.5, growth rate rose to 0.9%. More
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Apr 01 2016
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rose
The USFIG rose further in March to its highest reading since the summer of 2008. More
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Apr 01 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rises
U.S. WLI rises to 133.0, growth rate increases to 0.7%. More
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Mar 24 2016
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Ticks Down
Year-over-year growth in ECRI's USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, ticked down to to 2.3%. More
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Mar 24 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased
U.S. WLI increased to 132.4, growth rate rose to -0.7%. More
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Mar 18 2016
U.S. WLI Edges Up
U.S. WLI edges up to 131.6, growth rate increases to -2.3%. More
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Mar 16 2016
Interview on Fed and the Business Cycle
More often than not, turns in economic surprise indexes are false alarms, and false all-clear signals. More
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Mar 15 2016
Monetary Policy Parlor Tricks
Inexorable declines in NGDP growth have become more evident internationally. More
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Mar 11 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased
U.S. WLI increased to 131.0, growth rate ticked up to -3.1%. More
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Mar 08 2016
U.S. WLI Monthly Slipped
U.S. Weekly Leading Index (monthly data) slipped to 127.7, growth rate fell to -3.4%. More
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Mar 04 2016
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged
U.S. WLI virtually unchanged at 129.2, growth rate ticked down to -3.5%. More
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Mar 04 2016
U.S. Inflation Gauge Grows in February
The USFIG increased further in February to a 16-month high. More
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Mar 01 2016
Simple Math Revisited
Potential U.S. GDP growth is converging to ¾% a year, identical to Japan's GDP growth over its "lost decades." More
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Feb 26 2016
U.S. WLI Edges Up
U.S. WLI edges up to 129.2, growth rate ticks down to -3.4%. More
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Feb 22 2016
Bloomberg Interview Highlights
14 minute clip of today's Bloomberg TV interview; discussing Fed's mandate, consensus expectations, and three grand economic experiments at risk of failing. More
Testimonial
ECRI can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion. The institute called the last two recessions and the current recovery months ahead of the pack.
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
[T]he Economic Cycle Research Institute [is] a private forecasting group with an excellent track record.
Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
Nothing in the world compares with ECRI's insights into the business cycle. Those insights form a key part of our strategic and tactical management of asset class allocations. We have never been disappointed in following what ECRI's indicators suggest is likely to occur next.
