News & Events
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Dec 08 2015
Interview Part 1, Cyclical Slowdown
How to discern noise from cyclical direction. More
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Dec 04 2015
U.S. Inflation Gauge Slips
While staying a little above its springtime low, the USFIG fell further below its earlier highs. More
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Dec 04 2015
Eurozone price pressure ticks up but remains muted
Prices will rise only moderately in coming months, according to the latest EZFIG, as the ECB just cut interest rates and announced an extension of its monthly asset purchase program. More
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Dec 02 2015
Macroeconomic Sightings
The U.S. slowdown has lasted all year. How much worse it will get is the $64,000 question. More
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Nov 24 2015
Key Points from Interview on Cyclical Outlook
A full-blown rate hike cycle — beyond the effective tightening already seen — looks questionable. More
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Nov 20 2015
Flashback to "Simple Math: ½% + ½% = 1%"
The Fed has acknowledged what we have been saying that simple math shows trend US GDP growth heading toward 1%. More
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Nov 18 2015
Multiple Jobholders Boost "Full-time" Employment
The rising ranks of multiple jobholders are driving job gains. More
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Nov 13 2015
2008 Flashback: The Risk of Redefining Recession
Ignorance about recessions has taken hold because of a simplistic idea that a recession is two successive quarterly declines in GDP, a measure of the nation's output. More
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Nov 09 2015
The Case of the Wage Inflation Deception
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." More
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Nov 06 2015
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises
While it remains above March's 16-month low, the USFIG is well below its earlier highs. More
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Nov 06 2015
Fading Eurozone Inflation Pressures
Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have faded further, suggesting the European Central Bank's bond-buying programme is having little effect. More
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Nov 03 2015
Checked by China
The plunge in Chinese imports – rather than the stabilization in its stock prices – is the relevant measure of China's potential impact on global growth. More
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Oct 28 2015
New Growth Rate Cycle Trough and Peak Dates Determined
New Korean growth rate cycle dates. More
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Oct 27 2015
Flagging Family Fortunes
The median household income has been falling, but hit a new record high for households headed by the least educated. More
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Oct 22 2015
New Growth Rate Cycle Peak Determined for Canada
New growth rate cycle peak date for Canada. More
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Oct 22 2015
Key Measure of Cyclical Growth is Weakening
Fed rate hike plans remain on a collision course with economic growth, which has been in a slowdown all year. More
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Oct 15 2015
An Economic Truism: "Recession Kills Inflation"
Lingering lowflation can turn into deflation if recession hits. More
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Oct 13 2015
New Growth Rate Cycle Date Determined for U.K.
New growth rate cycle date for U.K. More
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Oct 12 2015
U.S. Economy Softening, No Recession Yet
All U.S sectors slowing, manufacturing the worst. All countries' export growth near zero, with alarming deflation. Fed unlikely to raise rates until economy accelerates. More
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Oct 05 2015
Three Point Summary of Today's Discussion on Bloomberg
Discussing the U.S. slowdown, World export price deflation and the Fed's Phillips curve approach. More
Testimonial
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm. Jan. 2005
ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles.
I have to pay attention to those people and indicators that have pointed in the right direction - even when they've gone against the crowd (and my opinion at the time). One such outfit is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, whose various leading indicators actually have done just that - lead where things were headed.
For ourselves, in this cycle, we'll line up with ECRI.
In March [2009], the month the market scraped bottom, ECRI went forth with [a] tablepounding historical observation-. The implication could not have been clearer that a market rally, when it started, would be no sucker's affair but the real McCoy.
ECRI continues to be an important resource in determining our tactical allocation. For over a decade their economic cycle forecasts and detailed research topics have been a critical part of our decision making process.
