News & Events
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Jan 06 2016
Inventory Overhang Looms Larger
With a yawning gap opening up between inventories and sales, the I/S ratio has soared to the highest reading since June 2009. More
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Dec 31 2015
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreases
U.S. WLI decreased to 130.9, the growth rate edged down to -0.9%. More
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Dec 24 2015
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Up
U.S. WLI ticked up to 131.4, growth rate virtually unchanged at -0.6%. More
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Dec 23 2015
Updated: The Myth of Consumer-Driven Growth
The premise of a consumer-driven pickup in U.S. economic growth is demonstrably false. More
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Dec 18 2015
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Down
U.S. WLI edges down to 131.1, growth rate ticks up to -0.6%. More
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Dec 17 2015
Interview on Implications of Fed Rate Hike
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Ali Velshi to discuss the implications of the Fed rate hike. More
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Dec 16 2015
U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate at 21-Month low
The USCI year-over-year growth rate slipped to 2.7%, a 21-month low. More
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Dec 15 2015
New Business Cycle Trough Date Determined for Italy
New Italian business cycle trough date. More
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Dec 11 2015
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down
U.S. WLI ticks down to 131.3, growth rate edges up to -0.8%. More
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Dec 10 2015
Full Bloomberg TV Interview
Key takeaways from Bloomberg TV interview: Cyclical Slowdown, Oversupply Overwhelming Demand and Reality of Inventory Build. More
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Dec 09 2015
U.S. WLI Monthly Increases
U.S. WLI (monthly data) increases to 129.4, growth rate rises to -1.3%. More
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Dec 08 2015
Interview Part 3, Reality of Inventory Build
Inventories have risen steadily, but sales have been falling since the summer of 2014. More
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Dec 08 2015
Interview Part 2, Oversupply Overwhelming Demand
Post-GFC stimulus has resulted in massive oversupply. More
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Dec 08 2015
Interview Part 1, Cyclical Slowdown
How to discern noise from cyclical direction. More
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Dec 04 2015
U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
U.S. WLI edges up to 131.7, growth rate rises to -1.2%. More
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Dec 04 2015
U.S. Inflation Gauge Slips
While staying a little above its springtime low, the USFIG fell further below its earlier highs. More
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Dec 04 2015
Eurozone price pressure ticks up but remains muted
Prices will rise only moderately in coming months, according to the latest EZFIG, as the ECB just cut interest rates and announced an extension of its monthly asset purchase program. More
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Dec 02 2015
Macroeconomic Sightings
The U.S. slowdown has lasted all year. How much worse it will get is the $64,000 question. More
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Nov 25 2015
US Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up
U.S. WLI ticks up to 131.1, growth rate increases to -2.0%. More
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Nov 24 2015
Key Points from Interview on Cyclical Outlook
A full-blown rate hike cycle — beyond the effective tightening already seen — looks questionable. More
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Testimonial
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Over the last 15 years, [ECRI] has gotten all of its recession calls right, while issuing no false alarms. Oct. 2011
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